Democrats Defy Expectations and Defeat Republicans with Unexpected Blue Wave in 2017's Most Important Elections
A giant blue wave swept 2017’s most important state elections Tuesday as Democrats won governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey.
Moreover, in a feat some analysts did not think was possible, early returns showed Democrats poised to take control of Virginia’s House of Delegates, its lower legislative chamber in a state the GOP gerrymandered in 2011 to create a red super majority.
In Virginia's governor’s race, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam beat Ed Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman. The nation’s leading voter turnout experts said the race was marked by women voting in historically high numbers and overall voter turnout exceeding expectations in non-presidential years.
In New Jersey, Democrat Phil Murphy, a first-time candidate, took back the governor’s seat by defeating the lieutenant governor, Kim Guadagno, capping a tumultuous eight years under Republican Gov. Chris Christie. The party was also on track to win a state legislative majority, putting Democrats back in control of the entire state.
But both party’s political insiders will see Virginia’s election as a national bellwether. Virginia was viewed as an indication of whether swing-state Republicans could survive President Trump’s deep unpopularity. In addition to winning the governor’s seat, during a race where the GOP threw everything nasty at the Democrat, including race-baiting voters, the biggest shock was early returns suggesting Democrats would takeover the House of Delegates.
“BREAKING: Democrats are IN THE LEAD to pick up the VA House of Delegates. They've picked up 12 GOP seats & currently lead in 6 (!!!) more. Whoa,” tweeted Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report and one of the nation’s foremost experts on extreme redistricting—which Virginia Republicans did in 2011 to their legislative seats. “You can’t really look at tonight’s results and conclude that Democrats are anything other than the current favorites to pick up the U.S. House in 2018.”
“Some of these leads are nail biters. Could see recounts,” countered a tweet by Michael McDonald, an associate professor at the University of Florida who specializes in voter turnout. Earlier in the day, he tweeted, “The first hints of a 2006 [blue] wave came when Democrats took back control of the Virginia Senate in 2005. Was first Southern legislative chamber to flip back to the Democrats.”
The pollsters and data crunchers also did not foresee Virginia’s blue wave.
“Massive turnout. Running 8 percent higher ahead of our estimates, which were 8 percent ahead of 13! Could be heading for nearly 2.7 million votes,” tweeted the New York Times’ Nate Cohn.
Larry Sabato, executive director of the University of Virginia's Institute of Politics, said the results were an open rebellion against the GOP.
"Dear Pundit Friends, please stop attributing this D landslide in VA to "changing demographics". VA hasn't changed that much since last Nov. 8 (Hillary [won] by 5%). The bigger explanation is a backlash to Trump and Trumpism, pure and simple, " Sabato tweeted.
Among the unexpected victors in Virginia was Democrat Danica Roem, who became the first openly transgender elected official in Virginia.
Roem, 33, defeated longtime Republican incumbent Del. Robert G. Marshall, 73. Their race primarily concerned local issues like traffic in suburban Prince William County, the Washington Post noted, but “also exposed the nation’s fault lines over gender identity. It pitted a local journalist who began her physical gender transition four years ago against an outspoken social conservative who has referred to himself as Virginia’s ‘chief homophobe’ earlier this year introduced a ‘bathroom bill’ that died in committee.”
It may be several days until the final composition of the House of Delegates, including its majority, is known, Wasserman said.
"Amazingly, the current margin is 150 votes or less in 5 of the 7 VA HoD districts that are still too close to call," he tweeted. "That means control will be decided by absentee/provisional ballots, and may not be determined for days."
(Editor’s note: This report will be updated as additional results become available.)
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